Hurricane Season Still Not Over, New Storm Could Threaten Florida

Weather-exhausted Floridians are casting a weary eye back at the tropics this week as yet another tropical cyclone is expected to threaten the state next week, even as Hurricane Rafael, briefly a Category 3 storm, fizzles in the Gulf.

Courtesy NOaa and the National Hurricane Center

A new disturbance currently moving across the Caribbean is expected to become a cyclone before it moves northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami has identified a new area of disturbed weather south of Cuba that is expected to drift to the west across the Caribbean as it slowly becomes better organized. Forecasters there are currently giving it an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days.

Long-range weather-modeling software used by LakeWalesNews.net, including the GFS, Navgem, and Canadian models, are presently in agreement in predicting a significant storm, likely of Hurricane strength, striking the west coast of Florida in about ten days. The developing storm comes during weeks of above-normal temperatures across Florida, which has yet to see the cool temperatures that once marked October and November locally.

Florida has already been battered by one of the worst Hurricane seasons in recent years. Those very bad, multiple-storm Hurricane seasons have been coming with increasing frequency since 2000. Southeast Polk had gone 44 years without experiencing a significant Hurricane event prior to 2004.

The latest development would be the third November cyclone, a month that normally sees few form as the season comes to an end. Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 until November 30, but the destructive storms can form in any month of the year. Scientists have warned that the rising oceanic heat content of the Atlantic and Gulf waters will provide increasing power for more frequent and more powerful storms.

Hurricanes Debby, Helene, and Milton have already punished Florida this year with destructive winds, storm surges, and flooding rains. If the models prove accurate, Hurricane Sara will be added to our storm lexicon. The projected landfall on the Gulf coast, which has already endured multiple rounds of severe storm surge damage, would be certain to further damage the economies of coastal cities and towns.

Courtesy FSU.edu and GFS Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential

The GFS model shows a cyclone approaching the Florida Gulf coast 198 hours in the future. That scenario would have the storm making landfall around November 22.

Hurricane Helene was especially destructive, causing billions in damage and killing hundreds of people across the southeast United States after making landfall on Florida's west coast.

The Lake Wales Ridge area suffered significant, but not catastrophic, damage from Hurricane Milton only a month ago. Many homeowners are still dealing with piles of storm debris which line many area streets.

As always, Lake Wales News will continue to monitor multiple models to keep area residents up-to-date on possible local impacts.

Residents are again urged to have a Hurricane plan in place. Most residents should plan to shelter in place, with adequate stores of food, water, medicines, and battery or solar-powered devices for lighting in case of power outages.

Residents of low-lying areas, mobile homes, or temporary shelters should be prepared to evacuate if called upon.