Tropics Becoming Active Once Again, Gulf Storm Expected to Develop

Ridge-area residents will find a changing weather pattern over the coming week as the tropics become active once again. The western Caribbean's "Central American Gyre" that has already spawned two destructive hurricanes is once again the source of potential trouble.

Courtesy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

A new tropical depression is likely to form in the next two days tin the western Caribbean and move in the general direction of Florida. Cooler waters in the Gulf of Mexico should prevent the rapid intensification that powered Hurricanes Helene and Milton earlier this season.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami is tracking a few disturbances already, and models are suggesting that others may follow. A broad circulation, still devoid of significant storms, is being given an 80 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression as it moves Gulf of Mexico.

If a new tropical storm develops, it would be named Rafael. A sub-tropical storm named Patty is currently moving over the Azores in the far eastern Atlantic.

Long-range models used by Lake Wales News, which have successfully predicted every development that has impacted Florida this season well in advance, are again showing the potential for an impact upon the state. After weeks of dry weather, some welcome rain may be the primary result. A Hurricane, however, is not completely out of the question.

According to computer models including both the Canadian and GFS models, a low pressure system is likely to be centered over the eastern Gulf by late this week. Although the models don't develop a strong system there, some predict the system will move over and linger near Florida.

After the passage of both Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton across the Gulf, the waters there are considerably cooler. The unusual heat that had developed this summer in the Gulf waters fueled both those storms to catastrophic strength as major hurricanes.

The cooler waters are some assurance that the worst of the 2024 Hurricane season is behind us. Although another major Hurricane is unlikely to develop, residents should remain alert to future forecasts. Hurricane season runs until November 30, but tropical storms are possible at any time of the year.