Rafael Not Expected to Have Serious Impacts Here, May Bring Welcome Rains

Tropical Storm Rafael, expected to soon reach Hurricane strength as it moves toward Jamaica, Cuba, and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to hold little threat for central Florida, but could bring welcome rains.

Courtesy National Hurricane Center

Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes across the western Caribbean Sea, maintaining that strength as it enters the Gulf of Mexico before weakening.

The cyclone, which reached tropical storm strength on Monday, could undergo a period of rapid intensification due to its passage over the still superheated waters of the Caribbean. Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico region, however, hostile conditions and cooler waters are expected to sap its strength before it can make landfall.

Models used to predict the path of the storms are diverging, with one set turning the storm west to fizzle out near Texas. A second group of models keep the storm moving northwestward toward Louisiana or Alabama, a scenario that may keep Florida under the influence of the storm. Gusty winds and rain are more likely under that outcome.

The Lake Wales Ridge and much of Polk County are currently within an area of 20 percent chances of tropical storm force winds, but that number is expected to increase as the cyclone grows closer and more powerful. No hurricane-force winds are expected over the peninsula, although the Florida Keys are likely to experience at least tropical-storm force winds.

After weeks of dry weather in the wake of Hurricane Milton, soaking rains would be welcomed by many locally. Florida is entering the drier winter months. November, April, and May are typically the driest months of the year for central Florida.