Will a November Hurricane Affect Florida? Forecasters are Becoming Concerned About Expected Development

After suffering through the most destructive Hurricane season on record, will Florida face yet another bout of severe tropical weather in November? That is the question being considered by forecasters as long-range models are suggesting that scenario.

Courtesy NOAA

A broad area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean has been given a 40 percent chance of spawning a new tropical cyclone in the next seven days. Models are projecting the movement of a new storm that would eventually move towards Florida.

Several models monitored by Lake Wales News as well as meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center and elsewhere are predicting the formation of yet another cyclone to our south. If it reaches tropical storm force winds above 38 miles per hour it would be named Patty.

The formation of a new tropical storm or Hurricane in the western Caribbean in about a week would not be beyond the climatological norms. The official Hurricane season lasts until November 30.

Models are suggesting a storm that would initially move slowly northeast toward Hispaniola as it strengthens. Conditions would then be expected to change and drive the cyclone toward the northwest. That would put the Bahamas and south Florida in its path.

Jet-stream modeling, a tricky proposition, shows the steady retreat of a protective ridge of high pressure from a position over Florida during that time frame. That shift could open the door for a storm to recurve north near our state. It's a scenario that has forecasters and emergency managers on alert.

The passage of Hurricane Milton directly over the Lake Wales Ridge and southeast Polk less than three weeks ago left destruction that, in many cases, is only now beginning to be repaired. That storm followed the horrific toll of Hurricane Helene across Florida and the entire southeast in September.

Forecasters at NOAA's National Hurricane Center are closely monitoring conditions in the Caribbean, where a new tropical cyclone could be forming. Long-range models are depicting a system that could approach Florida in about ten days.

Locally, several suspected tornadoes amplified damage to area homes and businesses.

If a new storm approaches Florida, it is not expected to carry the same strength as Helene and Milton, both of which were major hurricanes. Those two cyclones helped to cool the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which had hovered at temperatures far above normal for months, providing abundant heat that powered them.

Area residents are reminded that Hurricane seasons have grown increasingly dangerous across our region. What were once expected only once in decades have become frequent events. Hurricane Charley's 2004 impact locally was the first in 44 years. Since that time no less than six storms have brought hurricane-force winds to our area.

As always, residents should monitor the weather and pay attention to official announcements. Maintaining a disaster kit with food, water, medicines, and battery-operated lights is a good policy.