New Gulf Storm System Likely to Impact Florida This Week

As predicted here last week, a new tropical cyclone is becoming organized in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to bring heavy rains to Florida and the Lake Wales Ridge this week.

Courtesy National Hurricane Center - NOAA

The National Hurricane Center in Miami is predicting the development of a disturbance now organizing in the western Gulf of Mexico, which is expected to impact the Florida Peninsula this week.

The storm is generally developing in line with the super-computer models closely followed by Lake Wales News. Those same models are now predicting the improving organization of the potential cyclone this weekend as it moves eastward toward the Florida peninsula from the western Gulf.

The National Hurricane Center as of Friday evening is giving the system a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next seven days, but the expectation is that the system will approach the west coast of Florida by Tuesday evening. If it reaches Tropical Storm strength winds of 39 miles per hour, it will be names Milton.

Lake Wales News warned residents last Sunday, following the passage of Hurricane Helene, that a new system was likely to develop in the Gulf that would eventually move toward Florida.

Hurricane Helene, powered by record warmth in Gulf of Mexico waters, rapidly intensified and caused severe damage along Florida's Gulf Coast before bringing torrential and catastrophic rains to inland areas of the southeast, destroying entire towns and causing over 200 deaths.

Varying models agree that the Sunshine State will be in for heavy rains beginning Sunday. Some show the local area receiving as much as eight inches of rain.

There is a possibility that jet-stream wind shear will keep the storm from gaining much strength, an outcome that would be welcome by Floridians, but the possibility remains that it could strengthen into a powerful tropical storm or Hurricane.

Computer models, including the Canadian, European, German and GFS, show the system making landfall along the west coast of Florida south of Tampa Bay as it moves on a generally easterly path. That would leave the Ridge area and southern Polk on the weaker left side of the storm, with heavy rains still on tap.

As always, Lake Wales News will continue to monitor multiple models to keep area residents up-to-date on possible local impacts.

Residents are again urged to have a Hurricane plan in place. Most residents should plan to shelter in place, with adequate stores of food, water, medicines, and battery or solar-powered devices for lighting in case of power outages.

Residents of low-lying areas, mobile homes, or temporary shelters should be prepared to evacuate if called upon.

Following the passage of this system, trailing northerly winds are expected to advect dry air over the state, giving the area the first taste of autumn-like weather.