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Rapid intensification of System Likely, Forecasters Say
The latest computer model runs have placed Polk County directly in the crosshairs of a potential major Hurricane. Residents may wish to begin preparation for a storm. The Nat
Expected to intensify rapidly as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico, the tropical depression located in the red zone at left is likely to follow a northeastward path across the Florida peninsula.
According to the 11 a.m. statement from the National Hurricane Center in Miami, the area of disturbed weather in the western Gulf of Mexico is now a tropical depression, and will begin intensifying as it moves slowly northeastward over the next 24 to 36 hours before accelerating toward Florida. Arrival time of the system could be as soon as late Tuesday.
"The global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico," says the official statement from NHC, "and the regional Hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows the system nearing major Hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico."
The ensemble of computer models, popular called the "spaghetti" models, are tightly clustered around a landfall on Florida's west coast, with the center tracking across or very near Polk County. Rapid strengthening is likely due to the record heat trapped in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which provide potent fuel for hurricanes. Most of Florida is expected to receive heavy rainfall ahead of and during the passage of the storm, with as much as 12 to 18 inches forecast locally.
Like Hurricane Charley of 2004, the cyclone is expected to be very small yet intense, which could create a narrow swath of catastrophic damage in the immediate area of the eyewall passage. That is in contrast to last week's Hurricane Helene, which amassed a windfield more than 700 miles across.
A close-up view of possible paths for the small but intense storm show several models bring the center directly over Polk County.
Lake Wales News warned residents last Sunday, following the passage of Hurricane Helene, that a new system was likely to develop in the Gulf that would eventually move toward Florida.
Hurricane Helene was also powered by record warmth in Gulf of Mexico waters as it rapidly intensified, causing severe damage along Florida's Gulf Coast before bringing torrential and catastrophic rains to inland areas of the southeast before spreading as far north as southern Ohio. destroying entire towns and causing over 200 deaths.
Varying models agree that the Sunshine State will be in for heavy rains beginning Sunday. Some show the local area receiving as much as eight inches of rain.
As always, Lake Wales News will continue to monitor multiple models to keep area residents up-to-date on possible local impacts.
Residents are again urged to have a Hurricane plan in place. Most residents should plan to shelter in place, with adequate stores of food, water, medicines, and battery or solar-powered devices for lighting in case of power outages.
Residents of low-lying areas, mobile homes, or temporary shelters should be prepared to evacuate if called upon.
Following the passage of this system, trailing northerly winds are expected to advect dry air over the state, giving the area the first taste of autumn-like weather.
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