Hurricane Redux? Computer Models Anticipate New Storm Entering Gulf of Mexico

As the nation takes account of the staggering loss of life and damage caused by Hurricane Helene, Hurricane forecasters and Florida emergency managers are already casting a wary eye toward the Caribbean, where the active Central American Gyre (CAG) is in the process of generating another potential mega-storm.

A Canadian model offered this projection for conditions on October 5, with a significant cyclone in the eastern Gulf, moving toward the west coast of Florida, which was left battered by the storm surge generated by Hurricane Helene.

Florida's west coast took the worst of Helene, leaving the interior largely free of damage. Severe storm-surge that caused millions in damages to beach towns, while Polk County saw only gusty winds and scattered rains. The next threat could be different.

The slowly-turning air mass of the CAG tends to spin out over-sized storms because of its broad span. The gyre typically forms in late September and persists for weeks. Becoming the source of activity that often impacts the Greater Antilles, Mexico, and the United States.

Now long-range computer models, including the usually reliable GFS and Canadian versions, are depicting a new low which develops in much the same location as Helene, moving slowly into the Gulf of Mexico.

From that point, though, the prospects are different, as an upper-level low would push any storm in the Gulf eastward rather than the northerly track taken by Helene. That would move it towards the peninsula of Florida.

The 2024 Atlantic season has begun to fulfill the long-range forecasters who predicted a season far more active than normal, after the feared Cabo Verde storms that normally cross the Atlantic from near Africa have largely failed to materialize. Now the normal late-season breeding ground of the Gulf and Caribbean has become the focus, even as Hurricanes Isaac and Joyce churn the distant Atlantic. That dpair pose no threat to the United States.

Courtesy NOAA

The 2024 Hurricane season has passed the September 10 peak, but new storms can arise at almost any time. The official Hurricane Season lasts until November 30.

According to the National Hurricane Center, "A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress."

The NHC is presently giving that scenario a 50% chance of becoming a reality.

The ultimate course that any new system will take will be dependent upon several variable factors, but most models portray a powerful system just west of Florida, posing a serious threat to the entire Gulf coast of the state, as well as inland areas like the Ridge.

Residents are again urged to have a Hurricane plan in place. Most residents should plan to shelter in place, with adequate stores of food, water, medicines, and battery or solar-powered devices for lighting in case of power outages.

Residents of low-lying areas, mobile homes, or temporary shelters should be prepared to evacuate if called upon.