TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE: Storm Potential Grows for Florida

After a surprisingly quiet several weeks in the midst of the Hurricane season, it's time for Floridians to make certain that they are prepared for a storm as the tropics begin to heat up. Forecast models are developing a low over the Caribbean that could become a significant cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico in another week to ten days.

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Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami are keeping a close eye on the potential for development of a new cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea that could pose a threat to central Florida and the entire Gulf Coast.

The 2024 Atlantic season has stymied the long-range forecasters who predicted a season far more active than normal, as the feared Cabo Verde storms that normally cross the Atlantic from near Africa have largely failed to materialize. Now, however, the normal late-season breeding ground of the Gulf and Caribbean is becoming the focus.

The new threat revolves, literally, around the Central American Gyre, a slowly-turning area of low pressure that typically forms in late September, lasting for many weeks. This area becomes the source of activity that often impacts the Greater Antilles, Mexico, and the United States. Any Hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico is certain to have a serious impact somewhere along the length of the coast.

According to the National Hurricane Center, "a broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week."

The NHC is presently giving that scenario a 40% chance of becoming a reality.

The ultimate course that any new system will take will be dependent upon several variable factors, but most models portray a powerful system just west of Florida, posing a serious threat to the entire Gulf coast of the state, as well as inland areas like the Ridge.

Residents are again urged to have a Hurricane plan in place. Most residents should plan to shelter in place, with adequate stores of food, water, medicines, and battery or solar-powered devices for lighting in case of power outages.

Residents of low-lying areas, mobile homes, or temporary shelters should be prepared to evacuate if called upon.