Hurricane Helene Expected to Move Northward Near Florida This Week

Florida residents are urged to be alert and prepared as Hurricane Helene is likely to form rapidly and bring the threats of high winds and flooding to Florida this week.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are suggesting a 90 percent chance of a cyclone growing from an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean by Tuesday. That system is then expected to move northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where rapid intensification is possible.

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The GFS, Part of the Florida State University super-computer weather-modeling system, depicts a major hurricane uncomfortably close to the west coast of Florida by Thursday.

The NHC has been predicting the formation of the system for a week as models have persisted in depicting a cyclone moving toward the Florida coastline. Differences in those those models and their various runs leave much of the west coast of the state at risk, but most keep the center west of Pinellas County.

That forecast is small comfort to longtime residents of the area, who will recall the forecasts that likewise kept Hurricane Charley west of the peninsula 20 years ago. A slight bend in the path brought the storm ashore, where it passed directly across southern and eastern Polk County, causing widespread destruction.

The ultimate course that any new system will take will be dependent upon several variable factors, but most models portray a powerful system just west of Florida, posing a serious threat to the entire Gulf coast of the state, as well as inland areas like the Ridge.

It may be small comfort to Floridians to know that Helene is the oldest name still in use in the NHC list of Hurricane names, and pervious storms called Helene failed to cause significant damage or loss of life.

A model of jet-stream-level winds shows a powerful cyclone reaching the upper atmosphere in coming days.

Residents are again urged to have a Hurricane plan in place. Most residents should plan to shelter in place with adequate stores of food, water, medicines, and battery or solar-powered devices for lighting in case of power outages.

Residents of low-lying areas, mobile homes, or temporary shelters should be prepared to evacuate if called upon.

Lake Wales News will publish regular updates regarding local threats this week. If the storm becomes a direct threat those updates will be issued every three hours.