Tropics Heating Up After Long Lull

After a long lull that has stymied forecaster's predictions of a hyper-active Hurricane season, the tropics are once again heating up. A new disturbance heading westward across the central Atlantic is expected to pass across the Windward Islands and potentially threaten the United States.

Courtesy National Hurricane Center/NOAA

The NHC currently gives this new disturbance only a 40% chance of development, but it is becoming better organized as it crosses the Atlantic.

According to forecasters, the system is presently poorly-organized but has been given a 40% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone by the National Hurricane Center. If it does it would be named Francine.

Storms remaining in the trade winds and moving westward from the Windward and Leeward Islands have a higher propensity to affect the United States, as they often enter the Gulf of Mexico. The timing of the likely northerly recurve determines what land masses they will affect.

The season has already seen an early Category Five Hurricane, Beryl, which caused massive destruction and multiple deaths on its course across the Caribbean Sea and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, eventually slamming into Texas. The storm then tracked across the United States, causing severe flooding that destroyed homes and washed out bridges as far north as New Hampshire.

As the six-month Hurricane season progresses, meteorologists and climatologists are expecting the development of strong La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean Basin, which would lend to favorable conditions for storms to form in the Atlantic by reducing the wind shear that often tears young storms apart.

As always, Floridians should have a Hurricane plan based upon the strength and elevation of their homes, determining whether they should evacuate or shelter in place during a storm. An adequate supply of food, medicine, and drinking water are high on the list of preparations that should always be at hand.