Tropics Heating Up, But Threat to Florida Remaining Low, For Now

After a typically-slow start to the Hurricane season, things are beginning to move into an active phase in the tropics, a reminder to all that preparing for storm season should be well underway.

Courtesy National Hurricane Center

The forecast track of a disturbance over the far Atlantic Ocean depicts it approaching the Windward Islands and entering the Caribbean in coming days, with a high expectation of intensification while en route.

NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami is alerting on the development of Hurricane Beryl in the mid-Atlantic, an unusual area for this point in the season. The storm is expected to intensify to become a major Hurricane before reaching the southern Windward Islands. Long-range models and Hurricane Center forecasts keep Beryl on a southerly track as a ridge of high pressure moves across Florida in the upper atmosphere.

The early months of the season most often see the development of storms in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Any development in the mid-Atlantic could signal an early start to the "Cabo Verde" storm season, normally peaking in September, that sees powerful systems developing near the African coast before trekking across the Atlantic toward North America.

The 2024 Hurricane season is forecast by multiple agencies to be more active than normal due to the initiation of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, decreasing the upper-atmosphere winds that frequently "shear" young storms apart.

Another disturbance being tracked near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is expected to drift westward without becoming a Hurricane, but will bring another round of heavy rain to Central America and Mexico.

Early preparation for the storm season should include stocking canned or ready-to-eat foods and reviewing needs during power outages, including battery or solar lighting. A complete list of suggestions is available from FEMA here.