Climate Change Driving "Scary" Hurricane Season Predictions

If forecasters are correct, Floridians should expect and prepare for a very active and threatening Hurricane season for 2024.

Reports from private forecasters are already sounding alarms about the sharply-elevated water temperatures in the waters of the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. That heat, released as steamy air, is condensed and cooled in the heart of hurricanes, falling as torrential rain and creating the lowered pressure that drives the intensity of the winds.

Courtesy ECMWF, EU

This computer-generated image shows the temperature anomalies in the Atlantic basic, which range as much as seven degrees Fahrenheit above long-term norms. That heat is seen as an enormous fuel source for powerful storms, particularly those late-season storms originating off the coast of Africa, known as "Cabo VErde" storms.

"It's significantly warmer than it ever has been for this time of year," wrote Brian McNoldy, Senior Research Associate at University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, adding "this is deeply troubling."

Elevated levels of heat stored in the Atlantic basin are providing enormous amounts of additional fuel for storm development, along with increased chances of the phenomenon of "rapid intensification," which is becoming increasingly common.

Lake Wales area residents well may recall the rapid intensification effect from the 2004 impact of Hurricane Charley here, after the storm struck Cuba as a Category 1 Hurricane before spinning up into a Category 4 in the scant hours it took to cross the Gulf of Mexico and strike southwest Florida. Charley, moving at a forward speed in excess of 25 MPH, moved so quickly that it lost very little of its intensity before striking the Ridge area.

In 2023, Hurricane Lee intensified in near-record time, adding 85 mph to its wind speeds in a single day, jumping from Category 1 Hurricane to Category 5. That rapid change in the potential threat of a storm has forecasters, and coastal residents, worried.

The names that will be used for storms forming in 2024 include:

Alberto

Beryl

Courtesy NOAA

The normal peak of the hurricane season comes in early September, but the extra warmth in the Atlantic may make empower an earlier start to the activity.

Chris

Debby

Ernesto

Francine

Gordon

Helene

Isaac

Joyce

Kirk

Leslie

Milton

Nadine

Oscar

Patty

Rafael

Sara

Tony

William