Soggy Week Ahead For Florida, But Hurricane Unlikely

A week of wet weather is ahead for Florida as forecast models show a strong upper-level low persisting over the area all week. Waves of strong storms are expected to propagate from the Gulf of Mexico as southwest winds draw up deep tropical moisture.

Forecast models are showing as much as five inches of rain over portions of the peninsula, but local totals can vary widely.

The winds 15,000 to 20,000 above the surface feet will be circling in a strong counter-clockwise spin, which will induce the rains, but also help protect Florida from any tropical system approaching across the Atlantic. The Atlantic basin Hurricane season began June 1, and already there has been a sub-tropical system which passed south of Florida.

In an unusual variation from the normal pattern, a series of tropical waves, which can develop into tropical storms and hurricanes. are emerging from the west-African coast. That area is normally the spawning grounds for strong cyclones during August and September, while the Gulf of Mexica and the Caribbean are the normal sources of early and late-season storms. The reason for their emergence in June is believed to be a very wet start to the monsoon season over western Africa.

Happily, the same upper-level system that is bringing the heavy rain to Florida will deflect any Atlantic storms to the north and away from Florida.

The low pressure system in the upper atmosphere is expected to meander around the southeastern US for the next seven days, leading to successive waves of heavy rain and storms. Forecasters will continue to monitor for any possible cyclone development over the Gulf during coming days.